IIP for March 2021 presents a excessive potential trade image. The low base of final March because the nation was dipped within the menacing virus will be the main motive for such a excessive development charge (manufacturing by 25.8%, electrical energy technology by 22.5%, mining by 6.1% and IIP by 22.4%). The excessive indices for March 2021 have introduced down the de-growth charges for the complete yr. Manufacturing for full FY21 grows by (-) 9.8% and IIP by (-) 8.6%. This can be in comparison with second advance estimates for GDP to de-grow by 8% in FY21.
Indian metal trade is dealing with an attention-grabbing situation. First, the home flat class costs that elevated round 47% over the last six months are nonetheless at a reduction of minimal 10% with international costs. The present HRC 2.5 mm structural grade is ruling at a mean value of Rs 67,000/t ($905/t) ex-works Mumbai (with out GST) and the unfold between HRC and CRC has widened to Rs 14,000/t towards the conventional premium of Rs 5,000-6,000/t. For rebar, whereas it’s ruling at Mumbai at Rs 50,700/t ($685/t, with out GST), the rebar for Turkey is prevailing at $770/t.
Second, from mid-April to Might, the key auto producers have introduced manufacturing lower down at their vegetation. Throughout April ’21, gross sales of passenger vehicles have been expectedly decrease by 10% in comparison with March ’21 and extra de-growth in gross sales have been noticed with regard to gross sales of two- and three-wheelers. These vegetation and their OEMS are additionally supplying liquid medical oxygen on this disaster interval. The buyer sturdy section is reducing down manufacturing of ACs and fridges as family expenditure is on maintain to deal with sudden surge of Covid.
Third, the highway sector has emerged as one of many targeted sectors with the plan by the federal government of developing 4,600 km in FY22. These initiatives underneath PPP can be applied by EPC or by HAM module which have gotten majority acceptance. Constructing roads on the charge of 40 km per day has been aimed through the present fiscal.
Fourth, Chinese language export affords for metal within the observe up of withdrawal of export rebates have gone up. Export affords for HRC from China are presently quoted at CFR at $1100/t, an increase of round $100/t within the final one month. This has additionally prompted Indian export affords to Vietnam additionally to go as much as $1080-$1100/t. In consequence, if there’s a shortfall in demand within the home market as a result of extreme affect of the Covid for a month or so, Indian metal gamers are more likely to preserve their manufacturing models working by endeavor exports of HRC, CRC, galvanised and TMT by the next quantity.
Fifth, the growing development in iron ore costs within the international market (Chinese language CFR import of iron ore 62% Fe presently quoted at $224/t) has a corresponding rise in NMDC costs of Rs 6,560/t for fines Fe 64% and Rs 7,650/t for Fe 65.5% for lumps by NMDC in Might 21.
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